Heading into this weekend's Divisional Semi-Finals, we take a look at the two AFC games, breaking them down and giving out selections. Good luck if you are playing on any of the games this weekend. NY JETS
AT
PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -8.5
Over/Under: 34
Surface: Artificial
Despite finishing the regular season with three losses in their last four games, New York headed out to San Diego last weekend and pulled off an overtime win. The question for them as the playoffs started was whether or not they could beat a better team than them and whether or not they could win on the road in the playoffs. We're not sure they answered the first one, but they did score their first playoff road win in their last six attempts. Meanwhile, the Steelers enjoyed the bye week, a reward for their impressive regular season.
These two met Week 14 in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers recording a 17-6 victory. It was a lot closer than the score indicates, as New York's defense did a superb job of controlling the Pittsburgh offensive unit. The Steeler defense was very stingy as well. The game was tied 3-3 in the fourth quarter, before Jerome Bettis threw (yes threw) the games first TD pass. Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger was only 9 of 19 for 144 yards, as the offense continually stalled. Jet QB Chad Pennington tossed three interceptions and finished the day 17-of-31 for 189 yards.
The Jets needed overtime last week to get into this game, but really should have won in regulation. An undisciplined penalty on the final play of the game (linebacker Barton's blow to the head of Drew Brees) gave the ball back to the Chargers and allowed them to score the tying TD. Overall, New York played relatively well on both sides of the ball, although the lack of discipline and poor play calling by the Chargers were helpful. Questions about Pennington's shoulder and whether he could get the ball downfield still exist in our mind, even though he did go deep a couple of times (he hit Santana Moss for a long TD pass that saw the ball go approximately 60 yards in the air). But his passes still lacked that extra zip. However, now Pennington has been dealing with the flu heading into this game, missing practices. This could be an issue.
This week the offense faces one of the toughest defenses in the game, which they already know, having been held to six points in their head-to-head earlier this season. The running tandem of Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan will find yards tougher to come by, whether between the tackles or trying to bounce it outside. This ground game is the strength to their attack. Without it, Pennington and the passing game is predictable and easy to disrupt for a unit of this caliber. They are going to have to try and make more plays downfield, as that is the way to beat this Pittsburgh team. But they need a running game to set up the vertical game, and they need a QB who is very confident when he airs it out. Last week Pennington did take shots, but it was the first time since returning from his shoulder injury that he really tried to stretch a defense. The confidence, particularly on the road in Pittsburgh, might be lacking. The Jet offense will have trouble today.
The Steelers haven't tasted defeat since Week 2 (a road loss to the Ravens), posting a 15-1 regular season record. A balanced defense, and an offense driven by a relentless ground game and impressive discipline, makes them very tough to beat. QB Roethlisberger is a testament to that discipline (and smarts), as he rarely throws a bad pass, or makes the wrong decision, putting his team in tough spots. Backed by the AFC's #1 rushing attack, look for the offense to control the ball, keeping the Jets on the field for long stretches. The New York defense does a good job of stopping the run, but with weak spots on the corner, you know the Steelers will go after them, forcing New York to make adjustments, which will open up some running room. We look for the Steelers to have the upper hand in this battle, with their offense forcing adjustments, and then taking advantage of them after they're made.
Look for Pittsburgh to be able to score, and while we do see the Jets opening up their offense a little more than usual, trying to get the Steeler D off-balance, we simply don't foresee them having the same success. The line is steep, but we like Pittsburgh to win this game and will look for the cover as well.
Take Pittsburgh.
Take the Over.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
AT
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -1.5
Over/Under: 51
Surface: Grass
It's fitting that if the Colts want to make it to the Super Bowl, they have to go through Foxboro Stadium, beating the team that took them out in 2003. Last weekend's destruction of the Denver Broncos (49-24) set this one up. The highly potent Colt offense had little trouble scoring at will on the Bronco defense, as Peyton Manning surgically cut through them all game. Even with the corner Champ Bailey doing a solid job shutting down Marvin Harrison, it made no difference as Manning spread the ball around to his other weapons. The Patriots were at home watching on TV.
No doubt coach Bill Belichick will burn the midnight oil all week coming up with one of his famous defensive gamelans. It's worked on Manning in the past, but this year's MVP and his offense might be too much even for the genius of Belichick. These two played earlier this season, in the featured NFL Kick-Off game of 2004. Both offenses had little trouble moving the ball, but it was the Patriots who prevailed in the end, winning 27-24 as three-point favorites. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a game tying 48-yard field goal with time running out (his first miss in 43 attempts). That was a long time ago, but here we are in mid-January, back in Foxboro, with the Patriots as three-point dogs again.
The Colts travel back to New England for another shot at the Patriots in the playoffs. Last year they lost 24-14 in the AFC Title match. This year though Indianapolis brings more confidence, and a more diversified attack. Although these two have faced each other many times over the past few years, right now at this point, the Patriots haven't faced this Colt team, with the explosiveness and killer instinct. As well, their nemesis, a defense that folds, is better than most people give them credit for. They have been torched a few times this season, leaving a lasting impression, but this unit can be stingy, and can also get pressure on the QB. The problem they often run into is that their offense scores quickly, resulting in them rolling right back out on the field, and they are always up on teams, which means they face offenses playing a very wide open style, trying to get back in the game. It warps the numbers, artificially inflating key stats.
With the Patriots' injury problems in their secondary, it is going to be extremely difficult to handle the multi-pronged Indy attack. Ty Law is out, a big blow, as they hoped to have him back for this one. They lack depth and experience. It will hurt them. The Pats' offense has been dealing with inconsistent pass protection, with their tackles struggling against speed rushers - hello Dwight Freeney. Indy can get pressure, while keeping Corey Dillon from being the main storyline. They'll get help from their offense, as they put up some points, forcing New England to reduce Dillon's role.
The Pats' coaching staff is the best in the league, so they are always in the game. But this year they have holes that weren't there in past seasons, particularly holes on defense that this Colt team can really exploit. The weather might be rough, but even that won't be enough for the Pats to win another home playoff game over Indianapolis.
Take the Colts.
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AT
PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -8.5
Over/Under: 34
Surface: Artificial
Despite finishing the regular season with three losses in their last four games, New York headed out to San Diego last weekend and pulled off an overtime win. The question for them as the playoffs started was whether or not they could beat a better team than them and whether or not they could win on the road in the playoffs. We're not sure they answered the first one, but they did score their first playoff road win in their last six attempts. Meanwhile, the Steelers enjoyed the bye week, a reward for their impressive regular season.
These two met Week 14 in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers recording a 17-6 victory. It was a lot closer than the score indicates, as New York's defense did a superb job of controlling the Pittsburgh offensive unit. The Steeler defense was very stingy as well. The game was tied 3-3 in the fourth quarter, before Jerome Bettis threw (yes threw) the games first TD pass. Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger was only 9 of 19 for 144 yards, as the offense continually stalled. Jet QB Chad Pennington tossed three interceptions and finished the day 17-of-31 for 189 yards.
The Jets needed overtime last week to get into this game, but really should have won in regulation. An undisciplined penalty on the final play of the game (linebacker Barton's blow to the head of Drew Brees) gave the ball back to the Chargers and allowed them to score the tying TD. Overall, New York played relatively well on both sides of the ball, although the lack of discipline and poor play calling by the Chargers were helpful. Questions about Pennington's shoulder and whether he could get the ball downfield still exist in our mind, even though he did go deep a couple of times (he hit Santana Moss for a long TD pass that saw the ball go approximately 60 yards in the air). But his passes still lacked that extra zip. However, now Pennington has been dealing with the flu heading into this game, missing practices. This could be an issue.
This week the offense faces one of the toughest defenses in the game, which they already know, having been held to six points in their head-to-head earlier this season. The running tandem of Curtis Martin and Lamont Jordan will find yards tougher to come by, whether between the tackles or trying to bounce it outside. This ground game is the strength to their attack. Without it, Pennington and the passing game is predictable and easy to disrupt for a unit of this caliber. They are going to have to try and make more plays downfield, as that is the way to beat this Pittsburgh team. But they need a running game to set up the vertical game, and they need a QB who is very confident when he airs it out. Last week Pennington did take shots, but it was the first time since returning from his shoulder injury that he really tried to stretch a defense. The confidence, particularly on the road in Pittsburgh, might be lacking. The Jet offense will have trouble today.
The Steelers haven't tasted defeat since Week 2 (a road loss to the Ravens), posting a 15-1 regular season record. A balanced defense, and an offense driven by a relentless ground game and impressive discipline, makes them very tough to beat. QB Roethlisberger is a testament to that discipline (and smarts), as he rarely throws a bad pass, or makes the wrong decision, putting his team in tough spots. Backed by the AFC's #1 rushing attack, look for the offense to control the ball, keeping the Jets on the field for long stretches. The New York defense does a good job of stopping the run, but with weak spots on the corner, you know the Steelers will go after them, forcing New York to make adjustments, which will open up some running room. We look for the Steelers to have the upper hand in this battle, with their offense forcing adjustments, and then taking advantage of them after they're made.
Look for Pittsburgh to be able to score, and while we do see the Jets opening up their offense a little more than usual, trying to get the Steeler D off-balance, we simply don't foresee them having the same success. The line is steep, but we like Pittsburgh to win this game and will look for the cover as well.
Take Pittsburgh.
Take the Over.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
AT
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Patriots -1.5
Over/Under: 51
Surface: Grass
It's fitting that if the Colts want to make it to the Super Bowl, they have to go through Foxboro Stadium, beating the team that took them out in 2003. Last weekend's destruction of the Denver Broncos (49-24) set this one up. The highly potent Colt offense had little trouble scoring at will on the Bronco defense, as Peyton Manning surgically cut through them all game. Even with the corner Champ Bailey doing a solid job shutting down Marvin Harrison, it made no difference as Manning spread the ball around to his other weapons. The Patriots were at home watching on TV.
No doubt coach Bill Belichick will burn the midnight oil all week coming up with one of his famous defensive gamelans. It's worked on Manning in the past, but this year's MVP and his offense might be too much even for the genius of Belichick. These two played earlier this season, in the featured NFL Kick-Off game of 2004. Both offenses had little trouble moving the ball, but it was the Patriots who prevailed in the end, winning 27-24 as three-point favorites. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a game tying 48-yard field goal with time running out (his first miss in 43 attempts). That was a long time ago, but here we are in mid-January, back in Foxboro, with the Patriots as three-point dogs again.
The Colts travel back to New England for another shot at the Patriots in the playoffs. Last year they lost 24-14 in the AFC Title match. This year though Indianapolis brings more confidence, and a more diversified attack. Although these two have faced each other many times over the past few years, right now at this point, the Patriots haven't faced this Colt team, with the explosiveness and killer instinct. As well, their nemesis, a defense that folds, is better than most people give them credit for. They have been torched a few times this season, leaving a lasting impression, but this unit can be stingy, and can also get pressure on the QB. The problem they often run into is that their offense scores quickly, resulting in them rolling right back out on the field, and they are always up on teams, which means they face offenses playing a very wide open style, trying to get back in the game. It warps the numbers, artificially inflating key stats.
With the Patriots' injury problems in their secondary, it is going to be extremely difficult to handle the multi-pronged Indy attack. Ty Law is out, a big blow, as they hoped to have him back for this one. They lack depth and experience. It will hurt them. The Pats' offense has been dealing with inconsistent pass protection, with their tackles struggling against speed rushers - hello Dwight Freeney. Indy can get pressure, while keeping Corey Dillon from being the main storyline. They'll get help from their offense, as they put up some points, forcing New England to reduce Dillon's role.
The Pats' coaching staff is the best in the league, so they are always in the game. But this year they have holes that weren't there in past seasons, particularly holes on defense that this Colt team can really exploit. The weather might be rough, but even that won't be enough for the Pats to win another home playoff game over Indianapolis.
Take the Colts.
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